TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067418
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Budnikov
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118118––––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Budnikov to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Budnikov above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Budnikov at 54.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Budnikov 7–3 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Budnikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Budnikov
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budnikov 1503 vs Potapov 1594
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budnikov 40% vs Potapov 60%
Potapov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budnikov 60% vs Potapov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Budnikov -1 · Potapov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Budnikov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnikov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudnikov 1.73 / Potapov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Budnikov)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067418
Budnikov1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 35 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Potapov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBudnikov7wins
AwayPotapov3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBudnikov leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudnikov75%3 of 4
AwayPotapov33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budnikov4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S2Budnikov9Potapov1n = 10Budnikov took 9 of 10
S3Budnikov5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S4Budnikov5Potapov3n = 8Budnikov took 5 of 8
S5Budnikov3Potapov2n = 5Budnikov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBudnikovPotapovB − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.738.7+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudnikovPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 552 vs 192 / 40741.5%47.2%229 / 552 vs 192 / 407Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudnikovBudnikov 1.73/Potapov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Budnikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Budnikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 22:30O. Budnikov—811211113M. Potapov—11411772
WMay 14 · 04:35O. Budnikov—711611113M. Potapov—11611822
WMay 13 · 14:05O. Budnikov—11211113M. Potapov—311891
WMay 13 · 03:00O. Budnikov—1111113M. Potapov—9870
LFeb 12 · 09:05O. Budnikov—11117692M. Potapov—681111113
WFeb 11 · 13:35O. Budnikov—811117153M. Potapov—119911132
LFeb 10 · 23:30O. Budnikov—1011991M. Potapov—12611113
WFeb 4 · 01:30O. Budnikov—71111113M. Potapov—112991
WJan 12 · 01:30O. Budnikov—1117113M. Potapov—71550
LDec 7 · 22:00O. Budnikov—10111311112M. Potapov—129157133
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113WAug 29 · 02:15I. Fashchevskyi2.101071961O. Budnikov1.67121117113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
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