TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067407
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Budnikov
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711711411––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Budnikov above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 71 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 57.4%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Budnikov 2–10 Yaroslav Tebenko Oleksandr Budnikov has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budnikov 1529 vs Tebenko 1604
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budnikov 80% vs Tebenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budnikov 60% vs Tebenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Budnikov +3 · Tebenko -1
Budnikov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudnikov 2.10 / Tebenko 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Tebenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13067407
Budnikov2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Tebenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 76 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBudnikov2wins
AwayTebenko8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudnikovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTebenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budnikov2Tebenko8n = 10Tebenko took 8 of 10
S2Budnikov4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Budnikov7Tebenko3n = 10Budnikov took 7 of 10
S4Budnikov3Tebenko4n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5Budnikov1Tebenko5n = 6Tebenko took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBudnikovTebenkoB − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.7−3.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudnikovTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 552 vs 385 / 80841.5%47.7%229 / 552 vs 385 / 808Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoBudnikov 2.10/Tebenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 22:45O. Budnikov—61112972Y. Tebenko—1151011113
LAug 24 · 22:30O. Budnikov—12170Y. Tebenko—1411113
LAug 1 · 23:15O. Budnikov—551161Y. Tebenko—11111113
LJul 28 · 14:35O. Budnikov—811711102Y. Tebenko—119118123
LJul 27 · 22:30O. Budnikov—14911572Y. Tebenko—1211911113
LMay 12 · 21:00O. Budnikov—71111982Y. Tebenko—113811113
WFeb 12 · 06:35O. Budnikov—1111113Y. Tebenko—9750
LFeb 1 · 22:00O. Budnikov—871111112Y. Tebenko—111157133
WJan 27 · 12:05O. Budnikov—991212113Y. Tebenko—1111101072
LJan 20 · 06:35O. Budnikov—2580Y. Tebenko—1111113
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110WAug 29 · 02:15I. Fashchevskyi2.101071961O. Budnikov1.67121117113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862
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