TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067525
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911117112––
Oleksandr Budnikov
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:11 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Storozhenko above · Oleksandr Budnikov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 66 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 58.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Storozhenko 3–1 Oleksandr Budnikov Oleksandr Budnikov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Storozhenko 1533 vs Budnikov 1514
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Storozhenko 40% vs Budnikov 60%
Budnikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Storozhenko 60% vs Budnikov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Storozhenko -2 · Budnikov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnikov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStorozhenko 1.57 / Budnikov 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Storozhenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067525
Storozhenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 150 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it69% 96 of 140
Budnikov2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStorozhenko3wins
AwayBudnikov1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStorozhenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayBudnikov0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Storozhenko1Budnikov3n = 4Budnikov took 3 of 4
S2Storozhenko2Budnikov2n = 4split evenly
S3Storozhenko2Budnikov2n = 4split evenly
S4Storozhenko4Budnikov0n = 4Storozhenko took 4 of 4
S5Storozhenko2Budnikov1n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStorozhenkoBudnikovS − BBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match46.044.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStorozhenkoBudnikovBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 457 vs 229 / 55251.9%41.5%237 / 457 vs 229 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoStorozhenko 1.57/Budnikov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 18 · 01:00O. Storozhenko—811812113O. Budnikov—119111082
WAug 1 · 21:45O. Storozhenko—71113113O. Budnikov—1191151
LJul 28 · 17:05O. Storozhenko—11891192O. Budnikov—411118113
WJul 28 · 01:00O. Storozhenko—281112113O. Budnikov—111161082
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131WSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113WAug 29 · 02:15I. Fashchevskyi2.101071961O. Budnikov1.67121117113
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