TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073441
Played Sep 4Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111171012911––
Oleksandr Budnikov
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Budnikov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Oleksandr Budnikov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Budnikov at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 3–3 Oleksandr Budnikov Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Budnikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1472 vs Budnikov 1568
Budnikov
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 0% vs Budnikov 80%
Budnikov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 30% vs Budnikov 60%
Budnikov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -5 · Budnikov +1
Maltsev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Budnikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnikov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.91 / Budnikov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Budnikov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073441
Maltsev1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 90 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Budnikov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMaltsev3wins
AwayBudnikov3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev75%3 of 4
AwayBudnikovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev4Budnikov2n = 6Maltsev took 4 of 6
S2Maltsev2Budnikov4n = 6Budnikov took 4 of 6
S3Maltsev1Budnikov5n = 6Budnikov took 5 of 6
S4Maltsev2Budnikov2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMaltsevBudnikovM − BBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match35.035.8−0.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevBudnikovBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 884 vs 231 / 55251.1%41.9%452 / 884 vs 231 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudnikovMaltsev 1.91/Budnikov 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Budnikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Budnikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 29 · 24:15D. Maltsev—88120O. Budnikov—1111143
WAug 24 · 20:30D. Maltsev—119119113O. Budnikov—51171182
LAug 17 · 20:30D. Maltsev—5960O. Budnikov—1111113
LJul 28 · 12:35D. Maltsev—115661O. Budnikov—61111113
WJul 27 · 20:30D. Maltsev—11119113O. Budnikov—691171
WMar 16 · 05:35D. Maltsev—11118113O. Budnikov—681171
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 1 · 18:35I. Pytsko1.5711611113D. Maltsev2.25711771
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113WAug 29 · 02:15I. Fashchevskyi2.101071961O. Budnikov1.67121117113
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