TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073271
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Budnikov
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11411711135111113
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Budnikov above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 58.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Budnikov 1–4 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Budnikov has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:29What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Budnikov 1579 vs Storozhenko 1528
Budnikov
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Budnikov 80% vs Storozhenko 40%
Budnikov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Budnikov 70% vs Storozhenko 40%
Budnikov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Budnikov +3 · Storozhenko -1
Budnikov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBudnikov 2.38 / Storozhenko 1.53
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Storozhenko)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13073271
Budnikov2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 51 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Storozhenko1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 152 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it68% 97 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBudnikov1wins
AwayStorozhenko4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBudnikov0%0 of 3
AwayStorozhenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Budnikov3Storozhenko2n = 5Budnikov took 3 of 5
S2Budnikov3Storozhenko2n = 5Budnikov took 3 of 5
S3Budnikov2Storozhenko3n = 5Storozhenko took 3 of 5
S4Budnikov0Storozhenko5n = 5Storozhenko took 5 of 5
S5Budnikov1Storozhenko2n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBudnikovStorozhenkoB − SBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.045.2−5.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBudnikovStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 552 vs 239 / 46141.9%51.8%231 / 552 vs 239 / 461Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoBudnikov 2.38/Storozhenko 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 4 · 24:45O. Budnikov—411721O. Storozhenko—11911113
LAug 18 · 01:00O. Budnikov—119111082O. Storozhenko—811812113
LAug 1 · 21:45O. Budnikov—1191151O. Storozhenko—71113113
WJul 28 · 17:05O. Budnikov—411118113O. Storozhenko—11891192
LJul 28 · 01:00O. Budnikov—111161082O. Storozhenko—281112113
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113WAug 29 · 02:15I. Fashchevskyi2.101071961O. Budnikov1.67121117113
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131WSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113WSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721
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