TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031557
Played Aug 29Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10127111917611––
Oleksandr Budnikov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Budnikov to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Oleksandr Budnikov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 19-17
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 93 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Budnikov at 55.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 0–1 Oleksandr Budnikov Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Budnikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1482 vs Budnikov 1519
Budnikov
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Budnikov 80%
Budnikov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 30% vs Budnikov 50%
Budnikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -3 · Budnikov +2
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Budnikov) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnikov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.10 / Budnikov 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Budnikov)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031557
Fashchevskyi2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 86 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Budnikov1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 33 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 22 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFashchevskyi0wins
AwayBudnikov1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderBudnikov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFashchevskyiBudnikovF − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match40.049.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiBudnikovBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 523 vs 230 / 55651.6%41.4%270 / 523 vs 230 / 556Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BudnikovFashchevskyi 2.10/Budnikov 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Budnikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Budnikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 1 · 20:15I. Fashchevskyi—81111732O. Budnikov—117911113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.10811661M. Potapov1.6711811113LSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541WSep 3 · 21:45O. Storozhenko1.67111181082I. Fashchevskyi2.10281112113LSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181
O. Budnikov10
WSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113WSep 4 · 16:55O. Budnikov1.571111113I. Pytsko2.257950LSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133WSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152WSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880LSep 4 · 24:45O. Storozhenko1.5711911113O. Budnikov2.25411721WSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541LSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110LSep 3 · 21:15O. Budnikov2.10117741Y. Tebenko1.6791111113
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