TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073615
Played Sep 4Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
31112101210611711
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 57.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 23–31 Oleksandr Storozhenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 23 of their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-31 in 54
Storozhenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1688 vs Storozhenko 1551
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Storozhenko 40%
Tebenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 80% vs Storozhenko 50%
Tebenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +2 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Storozhenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.10 / Storozhenko 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Storozhenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13073615
Tebenko2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 130 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back13% 11 of 82
Storozhenko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 152 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it68% 97 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko5wins
AwayStorozhenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko60%3 of 5
AwayStorozhenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Tebenko4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko3Storozhenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoT − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.034.5−0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 817 vs 240 / 46348.1%51.8%393 / 817 vs 240 / 463Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoTebenko 2.10/Storozhenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 23:15Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—9790
LAug 31 · 05:35Y. Tebenko—10860O. Storozhenko—1211113
WAug 28 · 23:45Y. Tebenko—1111113O. Storozhenko—5770
LAug 26 · 08:05Y. Tebenko—115481O. Storozhenko—41111113
WAug 25 · 13:35Y. Tebenko—51111113O. Storozhenko—116971
LAug 21 · 02:45Y. Tebenko—761181O. Storozhenko—11117113
WAug 18 · 15:35Y. Tebenko—11115113O. Storozhenko—341171
LAug 15 · 01:00Y. Tebenko—4660O. Storozhenko—1111113
LAug 12 · 08:05Y. Tebenko—1181081O. Storozhenko—81112113
WAug 10 · 23:30Y. Tebenko—10111413133O. Storozhenko—1271611112
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131WSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 4 · 02:15O. Storozhenko1.8011390V. Korobko1.911311113
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