TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079157
Played Sep 6Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210115––––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 43–28 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 28 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-28 in 71
Potapov
Correct
gap of 15 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1516 vs Tebenko 1635
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Tebenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 40% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -2 · Tebenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.83 / Tebenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079157
Potapov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Tebenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov4wins
AwayTebenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov100%3 of 3
AwayTebenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S2Potapov4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Potapov7Tebenko3n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S4Potapov6Tebenko3n = 9Potapov took 6 of 9
S5Potapov0Tebenko3n = 3Tebenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovTebenkoP − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.6+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 416 vs 394 / 82146.9%48%195 / 416 vs 394 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoPotapov 1.83/Tebenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:25M. Potapov—66111162Y. Tebenko—111147113
LSep 3 · 22:15M. Potapov—111070Y. Tebenko—1312113
WSep 2 · 11:05M. Potapov—11118113Y. Tebenko—541161
LAug 21 · 24:45M. Potapov—991121Y. Tebenko—11117113
LAug 12 · 09:05M. Potapov—4111081Y. Tebenko—11712113
WAug 11 · 02:30M. Potapov—111011113Y. Tebenko—912561
WJul 9 · 22:45M. Potapov—71111113Y. Tebenko—118781
WMay 22 · 02:15M. Potapov—111211113Y. Tebenko—614871
LMay 5 · 07:35M. Potapov—87111162Y. Tebenko—111127113
LMar 17 · 02:00M. Potapov—51611682Y. Tebenko—1114911113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862WSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220
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