TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089256
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811114511114811
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Storozhenko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 84 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 64.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Storozhenko 17–8 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Storozhenko 1574 vs Potapov 1555
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Storozhenko 60% vs Potapov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Storozhenko 60% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Storozhenko +3 · Potapov -1
Storozhenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStorozhenko 1.50 / Potapov 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Storozhenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13089256
Storozhenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 155 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it86% 56 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it68% 98 of 144
Potapov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 46 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStorozhenko6wins
AwayPotapov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStorozhenko100%5 of 5
AwayPotapov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Storozhenko5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S2Storozhenko7Potapov3n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S3Storozhenko4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S4Storozhenko5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S5Storozhenko2Potapov1n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStorozhenkoPotapovS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.9+1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStorozhenkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 472 vs 199 / 42151.9%47.3%245 / 472 vs 199 / 421Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoStorozhenko 1.50/Potapov 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 23:45O. Storozhenko—81151182M. Potapov—114114113
WSep 5 · 21:30O. Storozhenko—11711113M. Potapov—511561
LSep 4 · 17:25O. Storozhenko—1191151M. Potapov—13115113
WSep 3 · 20:15O. Storozhenko—61111113M. Potapov—115891
WAug 20 · 20:15O. Storozhenko—11126113M. Potapov—7101151
LAug 17 · 21:00O. Storozhenko—13118111M. Potapov—15611133
LAug 12 · 06:05O. Storozhenko—817741M. Potapov—111511113
WAug 11 · 01:30O. Storozhenko—111122113M. Potapov—77111162
WJul 31 · 13:25O. Storozhenko—11911113M. Potapov—911771
WJul 23 · 23:45O. Storozhenko—1111118113M. Potapov—97131162
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 7 · 22:45V. Korobko1.9171111592O. Storozhenko1.80113711113WSep 7 · 21:15O. Storozhenko1.57811811113I. Fashchevskyi2.2511711972WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133
M. Potapov10
LSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev1.80812812113M. Potapov1.911110111092WSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4.3371141352M. Potapov1.201171111113WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162
Upcoming Matches
O. Storozhenko
M. Potapov
Sep 8 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—Sep 8 · 03:15M. Potapov1.73I. Fashchevskyi2.00—Sep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov2.50O. Storozhenko1.50—Sep 8 · 14:35M. Potapov1.80Y. Tebenko1.91—Sep 8 · 16:05M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—Sep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.83D. Maltsev1.83—Sep 8 · 18:05M. Potapov1.67V. Moshovskyi2.10—
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