TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078912
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113119117811117
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 18–17 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-17 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1540 vs Maltsev 1467
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Maltsev 0%
Potapov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 40% vs Maltsev 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Maltsev -5
Maltsev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.91 / Maltsev 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Potapov)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13078912
Potapov1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 45 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Maltsev1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 119 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it87% 77 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov5wins
AwayMaltsev5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov66.7%4 of 6
AwayMaltsev75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov6Maltsev4n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S2Potapov8Maltsev2n = 10Potapov took 8 of 10
S3Potapov3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S4Potapov2Maltsev7n = 9Maltsev took 7 of 9
S5Potapov3Maltsev2n = 5Potapov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovMaltsevP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.641.2+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 414 vs 449 / 88147.1%51%195 / 414 vs 449 / 881Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.91/Maltsev 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov—1111118113D. Maltsev—13971172
WSep 4 · 13:25M. Potapov—111179113D. Maltsev—84111182
WSep 1 · 12:05M. Potapov—11119113D. Maltsev—871161
LAug 20 · 21:45M. Potapov—711121242D. Maltsev—1151410113
LAug 17 · 23:30M. Potapov—1198121D. Maltsev—71111143
WAug 12 · 04:35M. Potapov—1111410113D. Maltsev—64111282
WJul 31 · 11:55M. Potapov—1111113D. Maltsev—7790
LJun 27 · 09:25M. Potapov—11118772D. Maltsev—571111113
LJun 13 · 04:55M. Potapov—711681D. Maltsev—11711113
LJun 12 · 24:15M. Potapov—12101361D. Maltsev—141211113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152LSep 4 · 02:45O. Budnikov1.731111113M. Potapov2.004880
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 11:55D. Maltsev1.911231181O. Storozhenko1.80101113113LSep 1 · 18:35I. Pytsko1.5711611113D. Maltsev2.25711771
Upcoming Matches
M. Potapov
D. Maltsev
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.