TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073262
Played Sep 4Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12103111113811––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 79 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 27–21 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 21 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-21 in 48
Maltsev
Wrong
gap of 6 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1533 vs Storozhenko 1528
Maltsev
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 60% vs Storozhenko 40%
Maltsev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 50% vs Storozhenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.91 / Storozhenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Storozhenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073262
Maltsev1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 90 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Storozhenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 152 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it68% 97 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev4wins
AwayStorozhenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev60%3 of 5
AwayStorozhenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Maltsev6Storozhenko4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Maltsev4Storozhenko6n = 10Storozhenko took 6 of 10
S4Maltsev3Storozhenko5n = 8Storozhenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevStorozhenkoM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.638.7−2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 890 vs 238 / 45951.5%51.9%458 / 890 vs 238 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoMaltsev 1.91/Storozhenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 22:00D. Maltsev—119441O. Storozhenko—91111113
LAug 29 · 01:45D. Maltsev—6111251O. Storozhenko—11114113
LAug 26 · 10:05D. Maltsev—711961O. Storozhenko—11811113
LAug 25 · 12:05D. Maltsev—116681O. Storozhenko—81111113
WAug 21 · 01:45D. Maltsev—8111111113O. Storozhenko—11139862
LAug 18 · 03:00D. Maltsev—71161152O. Storozhenko—119117113
WAug 15 · 03:00D. Maltsev—1112113O. Storozhenko—71080
WAug 12 · 10:05D. Maltsev—1111113O. Storozhenko—8820
LAug 11 · 19:05D. Maltsev—517791O. Storozhenko—111511113
WAug 8 · 09:55D. Maltsev—11813113O. Storozhenko—8111191
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 1 · 18:35I. Pytsko1.5711611113D. Maltsev2.25711771
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko1.408470O. Storozhenko2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972WSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113LSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113LSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151WSep 4 · 15:55O. Budnikov2.381111115112O. Storozhenko1.53471311133LSep 4 · 13:55I. Pytsko2.3811117153O. Storozhenko1.539711131LSep 4 · 02:15O. Storozhenko1.8011390V. Korobko1.911311113
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