TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078898
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116113118––––
Ihor Kvak
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeIhor Kvak to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Ihor Kvak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 50 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Ihor Kvak at 72.3%
50 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 1–2 Ihor Kvak Serhii Prus has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kvak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1419 vs Kvak 1507
Kvak
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 20% vs Kvak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 50% vs Kvak 20%
Prus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -2 · Kvak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kvak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kvak form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 3.40 / Kvak 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Kvak)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13078898
Prus3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 37 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 35
Kvak1.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 22 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePrus1wins
AwayKvak2wins
Kvak leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus1Kvak2n = 3Kvak took 2 of 3
S2Prus1Kvak2n = 3Kvak took 2 of 3
S3Prus1Kvak2n = 3Kvak took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricPrusKvakP − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match24.327.0−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusKvakBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 406 vs 32 / 5948%54.2%195 / 406 vs 32 / 59Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KvakPrus 3.40/Kvak 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Kvak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Prus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus—1111113I. Kvak—6380
LAug 2 · 07:25S. Prus—9940I. Kvak—1111113
LAug 1 · 17:55S. Prus—10440I. Kvak—121183
S. Prus10
WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271WSep 6 · 04:55S. Prus1.73117611113O. Sydorchuk2.0091111852LSep 5 · 17:55S. Prus2.0096140O. Hudyma1.731111163WSep 5 · 16:25S. Prus2.001111113O. Sydorchuk1.736740LSep 5 · 13:25S. Prus2.25571151M. Slozka1.5711115113LSep 5 · 11:55S. Prus3.254111261I. Pytsko1.3311714113WSep 5 · 02:15S. Prus2.00117119123V. Kuzmych1.73811811102
I. Kvak10
WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360LSep 5 · 16:55O. Hudyma1.50131179163I. Kvak2.501151111142LSep 5 · 13:55I. Kvak2.3811114842I. Pytsko1.53761111113WSep 5 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.80131111642I. Kvak1.91157911103LSep 2 · 11:35I. Kvak1.80117971M. Slozka1.9131111113LSep 2 · 09:35I. Pytsko1.508121111113I. Kvak2.50111013482LSep 2 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.83117411113I. Kvak1.8371111872LSep 2 · 06:35I. Kvak2.00113981M. Potapov1.7341111113LSep 2 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.4471111113I. Kvak2.63117991LAug 29 · 10:55I. Kvak1.5724131182M. Slozka2.251111119113
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