TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060486
Played Sep 2Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117119119––
Ihor Kvak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Ihor Kvak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 65.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 1–0 Ihor Kvak Ihor Kvak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1588 vs Kvak 1511
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Kvak 20%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Kvak 40%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Kvak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kvak form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.44 / Kvak 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Tebenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13060486
Tebenko1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 72 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Kvak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog62% won 8 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTebenko1wins
AwayKvak0wins
Tebenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTebenkoKvakT − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match40.036.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoKvakBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 808 vs 30 / 5047.4%60%383 / 808 vs 30 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.634.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.44/Kvak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 2 · 05:35Y. Tebenko—71111113I. Kvak—117991
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862
I. Kvak10
WSep 5 · 18:55I. Kvak1.831111113M. Slozka1.835360LSep 5 · 16:55O. Hudyma1.50131179163I. Kvak2.501151111142LSep 5 · 14:55S. Prus3.401111113I. Kvak1.306380LSep 5 · 13:55I. Kvak2.3811114842I. Pytsko1.53761111113WSep 5 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.80131111642I. Kvak1.91157911103LSep 2 · 11:35I. Kvak1.80117971M. Slozka1.9131111113LSep 2 · 09:35I. Pytsko1.508121111113I. Kvak2.50111013482LSep 2 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.83117411113I. Kvak1.8371111872LSep 2 · 06:35I. Kvak2.00113981M. Potapov1.7341111113LAug 29 · 10:55I. Kvak1.5724131182M. Slozka2.251111119113
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