TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055224
Played Sep 1Finished
Vadym Ishchuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111191199111311
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadym Ishchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadym Ishchuk above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 104 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Vadym Ishchuk at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Ishchuk 1–0 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:16What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ishchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ishchuk 1595 vs Karpenko 1718
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ishchuk 20% vs Karpenko 80%
Karpenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ishchuk 50% vs Karpenko 90%
Karpenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ishchuk -1 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ishchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIshchuk 1.73 / Karpenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ishchuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13055224
Ishchuk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 13 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Karpenko2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 84 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back22% 13 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeIshchuk1wins
AwayKarpenko0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderIshchuk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricIshchukKarpenkoI − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.040.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIshchukKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 361 vs 354 / 67342.7%52.6%154 / 361 vs 354 / 673Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IshchukIshchuk 1.73/Karpenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ishchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ishchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 23 · 05:30V. Ishchuk—113811113O. Karpenko—71111472
V. Ishchuk10
WSep 1 · 16:40A. Kotiash2.1041050V. Ishchuk1.671112113LSep 1 · 14:40V. Ishchuk2.2591450R. Sopivnyk1.571116113WSep 1 · 13:10V. Ishchuk2.38111110133M. Tiutiunnyk1.535612111LSep 1 · 11:10V. Ishchuk2.201111101262Y. Holoborodko1.611391210113LAug 14 · 12:05R. Sopivnyk1.6711119113V. Ishchuk2.10671171LAug 14 · 10:35V. Ishchuk1.50461171A. Troyan2.5011118113WAug 14 · 08:35Y. Holoborodko1.57612111172V. Ishchuk2.251110813113WAug 14 · 06:35Y. Kovshun2.104360V. Ishchuk1.671111113WAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WAug 1 · 11:05A. Troyan2.50612121192V. Ishchuk1.501114107113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113
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