TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427972
Played Aug 14Finished
Vadym Ishchuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411611118711––
Andrey Troyan
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeVadym Ishchuk to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVadym Ishchuk above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vadym Ishchuk at 57.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Ishchuk 1–1 Andrey Troyan Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ishchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ishchuk 1642 vs Troyan 1598
Ishchuk
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ishchuk 80% vs Troyan 40%
Ishchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ishchuk 70% vs Troyan 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ishchuk +4 · Troyan -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Ishchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ishchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIshchuk 1.50 / Troyan 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Ishchuk)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12427972
Ishchuk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 13 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Troyan2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 56 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeIshchuk1wins
AwayTroyan1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricIshchukTroyanI − TBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match50.050.5−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIshchukTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 377 vs 458 / 97144.3%47.2%167 / 377 vs 458 / 971Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IshchukIshchuk 1.50/Troyan 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Ishchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 1 · 11:05V. Ishchuk—1114107113A. Troyan—612121192
LJun 23 · 11:30V. Ishchuk—611119102A. Troyan—119811123
V. Ishchuk10
WSep 1 · 16:40A. Kotiash2.1041050V. Ishchuk1.671112113WSep 1 · 15:40V. Ishchuk1.73911119133O. Karpenko2.00119911112LSep 1 · 14:40V. Ishchuk2.2591450R. Sopivnyk1.571116113WSep 1 · 13:10V. Ishchuk2.38111110133M. Tiutiunnyk1.535612111LSep 1 · 11:10V. Ishchuk2.201111101262Y. Holoborodko1.611391210113LAug 14 · 12:05R. Sopivnyk1.6711119113V. Ishchuk2.10671171WAug 14 · 08:35Y. Holoborodko1.57612111172V. Ishchuk2.251110813113WAug 14 · 06:35Y. Kovshun2.104360V. Ishchuk1.671111113WAug 14 · 05:35A. Obishchenko1.53671191V. Ishchuk2.3811117113WAug 1 · 11:05A. Troyan2.50612121192V. Ishchuk1.501114107113
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LAug 1 · 11:05A. Troyan2.50612121192V. Ishchuk1.501114107113
Upcoming Matches
V. Ishchuk
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A. Troyan
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