TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13048623
Played Aug 31Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119119––––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:17 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 60.1%
55 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 8–6 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1580 vs Fashchevskyi 1458
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 50% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
Parahailo
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo +1 · Fashchevskyi -3
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Parahailo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 1.57 / Fashchevskyi 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Parahailo)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13048623
Parahailo1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 96 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it87% 52 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it75% 70 of 94
Fashchevskyi2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 85 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back29% 24 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo5wins
AwayFashchevskyi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo80%4 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Parahailo6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S3Parahailo8Fashchevskyi2n = 10Parahailo took 8 of 10
S4Parahailo3Fashchevskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Parahailo0Fashchevskyi3n = 3Fashchevskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.734.3+3.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 827 vs 272 / 53049.5%51.3%409 / 827 vs 272 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoParahailo 1.57/Fashchevskyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—4990
WAug 29 · 23:30Y. Parahailo—81111113I. Fashchevskyi—114691
WAug 26 · 10:35Y. Parahailo—1112113I. Fashchevskyi—11070
LAug 19 · 07:35Y. Parahailo—671181I. Fashchevskyi—11117113
LAug 18 · 14:05Y. Parahailo—101111192I. Fashchevskyi—126811113
WAug 14 · 20:00Y. Parahailo—11117123I. Fashchevskyi—7411101
LAug 12 · 09:35Y. Parahailo—91190I. Fashchevskyi—1113113
LAug 11 · 18:35Y. Parahailo—1210111192I. Fashchevskyi—141273113
LAug 8 · 10:25Y. Parahailo—11311952I. Fashchevskyi—911911113
WAug 7 · 17:25Y. Parahailo—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—5780
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus2.1011117952I. Fashchevskyi1.67971111113LSep 4 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi1.9158110M. Slozka1.801111133WSep 4 · 22:45V. Kuzmych1.834930I. Fashchevskyi1.831111113WSep 4 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi1.73111011113O. Sydorchuk2.00412991LSep 4 · 03:15Y. Tebenko1.611114113I. Fashchevskyi2.2081220LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.10811661M. Potapov1.6711811113LSep 3 · 23:45O. Budnikov1.5711911113I. Fashchevskyi2.25911541WSep 3 · 21:45O. Storozhenko1.67111181082I. Fashchevskyi2.10281112113LSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181
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