TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13048756
Played Aug 31Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114811118711118
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 28–32 Yaroslav Tebenko Yurii Parahailo has won 28 of their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-32 in 60
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1614 vs Tebenko 1580
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 80% vs Tebenko 40%
Parahailo
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 60% vs Tebenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo +4 · Tebenko +1
Parahailo
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 1.91 / Tebenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Parahailo)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13048756
Parahailo1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 79 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 64
Tebenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 71 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo5wins
AwayTebenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo83.3%5 of 6
AwayTebenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo6Tebenko4n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Parahailo5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Parahailo4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S4Parahailo3Tebenko4n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoTebenkoP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.234.9+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 829 vs 385 / 81649.6%47.2%411 / 829 vs 385 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoParahailo 1.91/Tebenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 07:05Y. Parahailo—691151Y. Tebenko—11118113
WAug 19 · 09:05Y. Parahailo—115811133Y. Tebenko—411119112
LAug 18 · 18:35Y. Parahailo—651181Y. Tebenko—11118113
WAug 15 · 24:00Y. Parahailo—11116113Y. Tebenko—541131
LAug 12 · 07:05Y. Parahailo—5161091Y. Tebenko—111412113
WAug 10 · 21:00Y. Parahailo—1111113Y. Tebenko—9760
WAug 8 · 08:55Y. Parahailo—11118113Y. Tebenko—991131
LAug 5 · 09:05Y. Parahailo—61070Y. Tebenko—1112113
LAug 4 · 15:35Y. Parahailo—117971Y. Tebenko—91111113
WAug 3 · 23:30Y. Parahailo—1111113Y. Tebenko—7670
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862
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