TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13048984
Played Aug 31Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118114––––
Maksym Khomenko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched — 80.1% is still 80.1%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
80.1%
80.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Maksym Khomenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 49 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Maksym Khomenko at 80.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 12–64 Maksym Khomenko Yurii Parahailo has won 12 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:44What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Khomenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-64 in 76
Khomenko
Wrong
gap of 52 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1634 vs Khomenko 1541
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 100% vs Khomenko 60%
Parahailo
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 60% vs Khomenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo +5 · Khomenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Khomenko) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khomenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 3.75 / Khomenko 1.25
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Khomenko)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13048984
Parahailo3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 79 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 64
Khomenko1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 68 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 47 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo1wins
AwayKhomenko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo0%0 of 3
AwayKhomenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo3Khomenko7n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S2Parahailo1Khomenko9n = 10Khomenko took 9 of 10
S3Parahailo0Khomenko10n = 10Khomenko took 10 of 10
S4Parahailo1Khomenko3n = 4Khomenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoKhomenkoP − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.536.6−10.1per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoKhomenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 831 vs 482 / 87549.7%55.1%413 / 831 vs 482 / 875Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoParahailo 3.75/Khomenko 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.3%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 12:35Y. Parahailo—1198101M. Khomenko—51111123
LAug 29 · 22:30Y. Parahailo—116541M. Khomenko—91111113
LAug 24 · 10:35Y. Parahailo—7660M. Khomenko—1111113
LAug 23 · 12:05Y. Parahailo—5670M. Khomenko—1111113
WAug 23 · 02:00Y. Parahailo—211811113M. Khomenko—11711362
LJul 26 · 02:00Y. Parahailo—6880M. Khomenko—1111113
LJul 18 · 22:30Y. Parahailo—16970M. Khomenko—1811113
LJun 1 · 05:05Y. Parahailo—117681M. Khomenko—91111113
LMay 31 · 16:05Y. Parahailo—8660M. Khomenko—1111113
LMay 31 · 24:00Y. Parahailo—7350M. Khomenko—1111113
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
M. Khomenko10
LSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982LSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 06:05Y. Kolos3.258540M. Khomenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880WSep 6 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.4415730M. Khomenko2.631711113WSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140WSep 6 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.80111143M. Loboda1.914210WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101
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