TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044597
Played Aug 30Finished
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15171210115711116
Yurii Parahailo
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 105 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 62.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 56–29 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 29 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-29 in 85
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 27 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1617 vs Parahailo 1570
Vorsuliak
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Parahailo 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Parahailo 60%
Parahailo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak -1 · Parahailo -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 1.53 / Parahailo 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13044597
Vorsuliak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 95 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it77% 68 of 88
Parahailo2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorsuliak7wins
AwayParahailo3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorsuliak100%4 of 4
AwayParahailo50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak4Parahailo6n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S2Vorsuliak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S3Vorsuliak7Parahailo3n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S4Vorsuliak6Parahailo2n = 8Vorsuliak took 6 of 8
S5Vorsuliak2Parahailo1n = 3Vorsuliak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorsuliakParahailoV − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.436.5+3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 897 vs 408 / 82950.7%49.2%455 / 897 vs 408 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakVorsuliak 1.53/Parahailo 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 04:35Y. Vorsuliak—71111113Y. Parahailo—113951
WAug 23 · 13:05Y. Vorsuliak—11814123Y. Parahailo—91112101
WAug 22 · 21:30Y. Vorsuliak—81113113Y. Parahailo—1141181
WJul 19 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak—1111113Y. Parahailo—7890
WJul 18 · 23:30Y. Vorsuliak—1111119113Y. Parahailo—81381142
LMay 24 · 01:30Y. Vorsuliak—11480Y. Parahailo—1311113
LMay 18 · 05:05Y. Vorsuliak—101181152Y. Parahailo—128114113
WMay 17 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak—511911113Y. Parahailo—11611632
LMay 17 · 01:30Y. Vorsuliak—7101171Y. Parahailo—11127113
WMay 11 · 10:05Y. Vorsuliak—13511113Y. Parahailo—1111571
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin2.0011114133Y. Vorsuliak1.737611111WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
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