TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089155
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksii Rodin
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171164111311––
Yaroslav Vorsuliak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingOleksii Rodin above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 74 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Rodin 7–9 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Oleksii Rodin has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vorsuliak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Vorsuliak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rodin 1509 vs Vorsuliak 1639
Vorsuliak
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rodin 0% vs Vorsuliak 80%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rodin 30% vs Vorsuliak 70%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rodin -5 · Vorsuliak +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vorsuliak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRodin 2.00 / Vorsuliak 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vorsuliak)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13089155
Rodin2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 30 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Vorsuliak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 100 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 70 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRodin4wins
AwayVorsuliak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRodinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVorsuliak62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rodin2Vorsuliak8n = 10Vorsuliak took 8 of 10
S2Rodin4Vorsuliak6n = 10Vorsuliak took 6 of 10
S3Rodin5Vorsuliak5n = 10split evenly
S4Rodin3Vorsuliak5n = 8Vorsuliak took 5 of 8
S5Rodin3Vorsuliak1n = 4Rodin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRodinVorsuliakR − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.539.1−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRodinVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 294 vs 451 / 89358.5%50.5%172 / 294 vs 451 / 893Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakRodin 2.00/Vorsuliak 1.73
Miss
What we said
57.3%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin—9560Y. Vorsuliak—1111103
LSep 3 · 14:05O. Rodin—11119862Y. Vorsuliak—371111113
WAug 30 · 12:05O. Rodin—11117123Y. Vorsuliak—4811101
WAug 28 · 10:05O. Rodin—1011116113Y. Vorsuliak—12871192
LAug 27 · 17:35O. Rodin—51040Y. Vorsuliak—1112113
LAug 27 · 01:30O. Rodin—811851Y. Vorsuliak—11711113
LAug 24 · 10:05O. Rodin—5911101Y. Vorsuliak—11119123
WAug 23 · 14:05O. Rodin—11101111113Y. Vorsuliak—13125512
LAug 23 · 03:00O. Rodin—1151151Y. Vorsuliak—13118113
WAug 17 · 09:43O. Rodin—871111113Y. Vorsuliak—11114592
O. Rodin10
LSep 7 · 07:35Y. Kolos1.911111127113O. Rodin1.8087141172LSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.831111113O. Rodin1.833880LSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.101113113O. Rodin1.6761140LSep 6 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Rodin2.206340WSep 6 · 14:05O. Rodin2.38111111113M. Loboda1.53138571WSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793WSep 3 · 19:05O. Rodin2.1011116113A. Romanenko1.67661161LSep 3 · 17:05M. Loboda1.5321411113O. Rodin2.381112631
Y. Vorsuliak10
WSep 7 · 07:05M. Khomenko2.389670Y. Vorsuliak1.531111113WSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113WSep 7 · 04:35Y. Kolos2.1091113842Y. Vorsuliak1.671191111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Rodin1.839560Y. Vorsuliak1.831111103LSep 6 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak2.6311611882M. Loboda1.44811311113WSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508480WSep 6 · 12:35M. Khomenko2.25119921Y. Vorsuliak1.5791111113WSep 4 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak2.3812118113A. Romanenko1.531091171LSep 4 · 09:35M. Loboda1.44111411133Y. Vorsuliak2.637166111
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