TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037473
Played Aug 30Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111214411––––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 59 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 13–17 Denys Maltsev Yurii Parahailo has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:30What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Maltsev
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1618 vs Maltsev 1527
Parahailo
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 80% vs Maltsev 60%
Parahailo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 70% vs Maltsev 50%
Parahailo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo +2 · Maltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 2.00 / Maltsev 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maltsev)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13037473
Parahailo2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 77 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Maltsev1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 120 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it75% 96 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo4wins
AwayMaltsev6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo25%1 of 4
AwayMaltsev50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Parahailo1Maltsev9n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S3Parahailo5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Parahailo6Maltsev3n = 9Parahailo took 6 of 9
S5Parahailo3Maltsev2n = 5Parahailo took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoMaltsevP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.041.7−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 825 vs 453 / 88349.2%51.3%406 / 825 vs 453 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevParahailo 2.00/Maltsev 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 08:35Y. Parahailo—11118113D. Maltsev—921141
WAug 19 · 04:35Y. Parahailo—721111113D. Maltsev—11119372
LAug 18 · 01:30Y. Parahailo—781191D. Maltsev—11116113
LAug 15 · 01:30Y. Parahailo—117614102D. Maltsev—7111112123
LAug 12 · 08:35Y. Parahailo—79171182D. Maltsev—1111158113
LAug 11 · 17:35Y. Parahailo—1191381D. Maltsev—61115113
WAug 8 · 04:25Y. Parahailo—681111113D. Maltsev—11114862
LAug 7 · 15:55Y. Parahailo—10470D. Maltsev—1211113
WAug 5 · 06:05Y. Parahailo—961311113D. Maltsev—111111672
LAug 4 · 19:05Y. Parahailo—117871D. Maltsev—61111113
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101
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