TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044709
Played Aug 30Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511911119116911
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:55 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 55.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 53–61 Yurii Parahailo Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 53 of their 114 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-61 in 114
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 8 in 114, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1532 vs Parahailo 1563
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 0% vs Parahailo 40%
Parahailo
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 30% vs Parahailo 60%
Parahailo
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -5 · Parahailo -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Parahailo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.10 / Parahailo 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Parahailo)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13044709
Shchegelskyi2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 62 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back26% 24 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Parahailo1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 95 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi3wins
AwayParahailo7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayParahailo87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi2Parahailo8n = 10Parahailo took 8 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi1Parahailo9n = 10Parahailo took 9 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi6Parahailo4n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi3Parahailo4n = 7Parahailo took 4 of 7
S5Shchegelskyi2Parahailo1n = 3Shchegelskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiParahailoS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.840.4−6.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 897 vs 406 / 82853%49%475 / 897 vs 406 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoShchegelskyi 2.10/Parahailo 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 09:35D. Shchegelskyi—761161Y. Parahailo—11110113
LJul 26 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi—10680Y. Parahailo—1211113
WJul 26 · 24:30D. Shchegelskyi—131011123Y. Parahailo—11127101
LJul 19 · 16:05D. Shchegelskyi—8860Y. Parahailo—1111113
LJul 18 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi—5730Y. Parahailo—1111113
LJun 1 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi—981141Y. Parahailo—11112113
WMay 31 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi—117511113Y. Parahailo—81111972
LMay 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi—7161131Y. Parahailo—11189113
LMay 25 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi—97121142Y. Parahailo—1111109113
WMay 16 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi—912111113Y. Parahailo—111081192
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 7 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi1.571381111113M. Khomenko2.2515115982WSep 7 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi1.73117112153O. Rodin2.00811911132LSep 7 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi2.201011111582Y. Vorsuliak1.61125917113LSep 6 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi2.109970M. Loboda1.671111113LSep 6 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.611111103D. Shchegelskyi2.208780LSep 6 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.20135221Y. Vorsuliak1.61111111113LSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko2.10911711113D. Shchegelskyi1.6711611542LSep 6 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73631181O. Rodin2.001111793LSep 4 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.63121411102V. Slozka1.441011117123LSep 4 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.67111213113D. Shchegelskyi2.106101581
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.2011611123D. Maltsev1.618117101WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
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