TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049150
Played Aug 31Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1186111171210––
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 58.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 14–18 Denys Maltsev Yurii Parahailo has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maltsev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Maltsev
Wrong
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1634 vs Maltsev 1533
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 60% vs Maltsev 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 50% vs Maltsev 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo +2 · Maltsev +3
Maltsev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Maltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 2.20 / Maltsev 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Maltsev)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13049150
Parahailo2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 82 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 64
Maltsev1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 119 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it87% 77 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it75% 95 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo4wins
AwayMaltsev6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo50%2 of 4
AwayMaltsev66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Parahailo1Maltsev9n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S3Parahailo5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Parahailo6Maltsev2n = 8Parahailo took 6 of 8
S5Parahailo2Maltsev2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoMaltsevP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.4−1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 821 vs 458 / 89049.9%51.5%410 / 821 vs 458 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevParahailo 2.20/Maltsev 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 06:05Y. Parahailo—11611123D. Maltsev—8117101
LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo—71240D. Maltsev—1114113
WAug 26 · 08:35Y. Parahailo—11118113D. Maltsev—921141
WAug 19 · 04:35Y. Parahailo—721111113D. Maltsev—11119372
LAug 18 · 01:30Y. Parahailo—781191D. Maltsev—11116113
LAug 15 · 01:30Y. Parahailo—117614102D. Maltsev—7111112123
LAug 12 · 08:35Y. Parahailo—79171182D. Maltsev—1111158113
LAug 11 · 17:35Y. Parahailo—1191381D. Maltsev—61115113
WAug 8 · 04:25Y. Parahailo—681111113D. Maltsev—11114862
LAug 7 · 15:55Y. Parahailo—10470D. Maltsev—1211113
Y. Parahailo10
WAug 31 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.751111113M. Khomenko1.254840WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.91118117113Y. Tebenko1.8041181182WAug 31 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.831111113O. Storozhenko1.837550WAug 31 · 04:35Y. Parahailo1.571111113I. Fashchevskyi2.254990WAug 30 · 19:05Y. Kolos1.22871171Y. Parahailo4.0011118113LAug 30 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.388790O. Rodin1.531111113WAug 30 · 15:35D. Shchegelskyi2.1059111192Y. Parahailo1.67111196113LAug 30 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak1.531512117113Y. Parahailo2.38171051162LAug 30 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.2251111123Y. Parahailo4.001198101LAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
D. Maltsev10
WSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113WSep 6 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.73116971D. Maltsev2.0041111113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113LSep 5 · 22:00M. Khomenko1.361111113113D. Maltsev3.0013881162LSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 17:55D. Maltsev1.918111091O. Budnikov1.8011712113LSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173LSep 4 · 14:55D. Maltsev2.257111191I. Pytsko1.5711313113LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113WAug 30 · 02:30Y. Parahailo2.0071240D. Maltsev1.731114113
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