TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031578
Played Aug 28Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711811116811
Mykhailo Vivatenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Vivatenko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Mykhailo Vivatenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Mykhailo Vivatenko at 65.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 11–25 Mykhailo Vivatenko Mykolay Treschetka has won 11 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vivatenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-25 in 36
Vivatenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1159 vs Vivatenko 1199
Vivatenko
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 60% vs Vivatenko 40%
Treschetka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 40% vs Vivatenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -2 · Vivatenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Vivatenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vivatenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 2.63 / Vivatenko 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Vivatenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13031578
Treschetka2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 92 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 73
Vivatenko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 53 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 42 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka4wins
AwayVivatenko6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVivatenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka66.7%2 of 3
AwayVivatenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka3Vivatenko7n = 10Vivatenko took 7 of 10
S2Treschetka3Vivatenko7n = 10Vivatenko took 7 of 10
S3Treschetka4Vivatenko6n = 10Vivatenko took 6 of 10
S4Treschetka6Vivatenko1n = 7Treschetka took 6 of 7
S5Treschetka2Vivatenko3n = 5Vivatenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaVivatenkoT − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.641.6−3.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaVivatenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 943 vs 151 / 27450.4%55.1%475 / 943 vs 151 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VivatenkoTreschetka 2.63/Vivatenko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Vivatenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vivatenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 08:55M. Treschetka—96111142M. Vivatenko—111189113
LAug 14 · 07:25M. Treschetka—71213762M. Vivatenko—11101111113
WAug 1 · 09:25M. Treschetka—11711113M. Vivatenko—111961
WJul 27 · 10:55M. Treschetka—12116113M. Vivatenko—1091191
LJul 13 · 09:25M. Treschetka—1141114102M. Vivatenko—6111312123
LJul 3 · 06:25M. Treschetka—9770M. Vivatenko—1111113
WMay 15 · 08:55M. Treschetka—712814113M. Vivatenko—1110111272
LMay 13 · 09:35M. Treschetka—8790M. Vivatenko—1111113
WMay 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka—571111113M. Vivatenko—11118462
LMay 4 · 07:25M. Treschetka—101060M. Vivatenko—1212113
M. Treschetka10
LSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103WSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113WSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520WSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142
M. Vivatenko10
WAug 31 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.61131129113M. Dunas2.20115111192LAug 31 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.63111111113M. Vivatenko1.44138821LAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552LAug 31 · 06:25M. Vivatenko1.677121091O. Maksymkiv2.10111012113WAug 31 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi3.5011119752M. Vivatenko1.28971111113LAug 28 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.5711118762O. Maksymkiv2.25571111113LAug 28 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.5711115772M. Dunas2.25861111113LAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.331111113O. Maslovskyi3.255560LAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113
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