TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13048229
Played Aug 31Finished
Mykhailo Vivatenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311115211911119
Mykhailo Dunas
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Vivatenko to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Vivatenko above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Mykhailo Vivatenko at 58.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Vivatenko 1–1 Mykhailo Dunas Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:17What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vivatenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vivatenko 1172 vs Dunas 1109
Vivatenko
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vivatenko 20% vs Dunas 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vivatenko 30% vs Dunas 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vivatenko -3 · Dunas -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vivatenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dunas form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVivatenko 1.61 / Dunas 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Vivatenko)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13048229
Vivatenko1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 43 of 59
Dunas2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 10 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVivatenko1wins
AwayDunas1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVivatenkoDunasV − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.536.5+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVivatenkoDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 275 vs 15 / 4254.9%35.7%151 / 275 vs 15 / 42Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VivatenkoVivatenko 1.61/Dunas 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Vivatenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vivatenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 28 · 07:55M. Vivatenko—11115772M. Dunas—861111113
WAug 14 · 06:25M. Vivatenko—1211113M. Dunas—10880
M. Vivatenko10
LAug 31 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.63111111113M. Vivatenko1.44138821LAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552LAug 31 · 06:25M. Vivatenko1.677121091O. Maksymkiv2.10111012113WAug 31 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi3.5011119752M. Vivatenko1.28971111113LAug 28 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.5711118762O. Maksymkiv2.25571111113WAug 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka2.6311781182M. Vivatenko1.44611116113LAug 28 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.5711115772M. Dunas2.25861111113LAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.331111113O. Maslovskyi3.255560LAug 24 · 10:55M. Vivatenko2.251110361D. Kasian1.5791211113
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421WAug 28 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.5711115772M. Dunas2.25861111113
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