TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067203
Played Sep 3Finished
Mykhailo Dunas
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9117111513411––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Dunas above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 81 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 77.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Dunas 0–6 Oleh Maksymkiv Mykhailo Dunas has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dunas 1098 vs Maksymkiv 1218
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dunas 40% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dunas 30% vs Maksymkiv 50%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dunas -1 · Maksymkiv -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDunas 3.40 / Maksymkiv 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067203
Dunas3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 11 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back10% 2 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Maksymkiv1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 124 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDunas0wins
AwayMaksymkiv6wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 6–0, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDunasn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dunas1Maksymkiv5n = 6Maksymkiv took 5 of 6
S2Dunas2Maksymkiv4n = 6Maksymkiv took 4 of 6
S3Dunas3Maksymkiv3n = 6split evenly
S4Dunas0Maksymkiv5n = 5Maksymkiv took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away467%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDunasMaksymkivD − MBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match31.841.5−9.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDunasMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 50 vs 371 / 70936%52.3%18 / 50 vs 371 / 709Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivDunas 3.40/Maksymkiv 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas—971541O. Maksymkiv—111113113
LAug 31 · 09:55M. Dunas—591111O. Maksymkiv—11115113
LAug 30 · 13:55M. Dunas—9490O. Maksymkiv—1111113
LAug 28 · 09:55M. Dunas—138891O. Maksymkiv—111111113
LAug 27 · 16:55M. Dunas—911531O. Maksymkiv—11711113
LAug 14 · 09:55M. Dunas—111111272O. Maksymkiv—138511113
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421WSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113LAug 31 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.61131129113M. Dunas2.20115111192
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Dunas
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O. Maksymkiv
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