TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084651
Played Sep 6Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131178111416––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 91 set 4, 14-16 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 66.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 8–25 Oleh Maksymkiv Vsevolod Kheresko has won 8 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-25 in 33
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 17 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1200 vs Maksymkiv 1202
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 40% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 30% vs Maksymkiv 50%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +2 · Maksymkiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 2.50 / Maksymkiv 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084651
Kheresko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 56 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Maksymkiv1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 126 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKheresko2wins
AwayMaksymkiv8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko25%2 of 8
AwayMaksymkivn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko8Maksymkiv2n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S2Kheresko3Maksymkiv7n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S3Kheresko3Maksymkiv7n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S4Kheresko3Maksymkiv6n = 9Maksymkiv took 6 of 9
S5Kheresko0Maksymkiv3n = 3Maksymkiv took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhereskoMaksymkivK − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.8−2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 408 vs 374 / 71550%52.3%204 / 408 vs 374 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivKheresko 2.50/Maksymkiv 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 07:55V. Kheresko—11871172O. Maksymkiv—911112113
LAug 19 · 09:55V. Kheresko—8101191O. Maksymkiv—11124113
LAug 10 · 11:25V. Kheresko—117791O. Maksymkiv—81111113
LAug 1 · 09:55V. Kheresko—812571O. Maksymkiv—111011113
LJul 26 · 14:25V. Kheresko—11921182O. Maksymkiv—311118113
WJul 14 · 13:25V. Kheresko—1211113O. Maksymkiv—10670
LJul 9 · 04:25V. Kheresko—111313792O. Maksymkiv—7111511113
LJul 2 · 17:25V. Kheresko—1363101O. Maksymkiv—111111123
WJun 15 · 09:55V. Kheresko—11912113O. Maksymkiv—9111071
LJun 14 · 18:55V. Kheresko—11511141O. Maksymkiv—81113163
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172WSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113WSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113WSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172
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