TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084027
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleg Sapuzhak
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119611411––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Sapuzhak above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 73.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Sapuzhak 1–4 Vsevolod Kheresko Oleg Sapuzhak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kheresko
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sapuzhak 1141 vs Kheresko 1202
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sapuzhak 40% vs Kheresko 20%
Sapuzhak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sapuzhak 50% vs Kheresko 20%
Sapuzhak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sapuzhak -2 · Kheresko -4
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kheresko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSapuzhak 3.50 / Kheresko 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Kheresko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084027
Sapuzhak3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 8 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Kheresko1.28
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 91 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 75 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSapuzhak1wins
AwayKheresko4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKheresko leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSapuzhakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKheresko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sapuzhak1Kheresko4n = 5Kheresko took 4 of 5
S2Sapuzhak2Kheresko3n = 5Kheresko took 3 of 5
S3Sapuzhak0Kheresko5n = 5Kheresko took 5 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricSapuzhakKhereskoS − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match26.038.4−12.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSapuzhakKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 181 vs 205 / 41041.4%50%75 / 181 vs 205 / 410Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoSapuzhak 3.50/Kheresko 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak—611641V. Kheresko—11911113
LAug 20 · 11:25O. Sapuzhak—7870V. Kheresko—1111113
LAug 1 · 05:55O. Sapuzhak—6870V. Kheresko—1111113
LJul 26 · 15:55O. Sapuzhak—4340V. Kheresko—1111113
WJul 12 · 18:55O. Sapuzhak—121159123V. Kheresko—1091111102
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761WAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172WSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
Upcoming Matches
O. Sapuzhak
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V. Kheresko
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