TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12477717
Played Aug 23Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7118111181311611
Oleg Sapuzhak
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Oleg Sapuzhak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 62.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 3–0 Oleg Sapuzhak Oleg Sapuzhak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:00What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1148 vs Sapuzhak 1166
Sapuzhak
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Sapuzhak 40%
Sapuzhak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 20% vs Sapuzhak 40%
Sapuzhak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +1 · Sapuzhak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.57 / Sapuzhak 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12477717
Maksymkiv1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 114 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it82% 82 of 100
Sapuzhak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 4 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv3wins
AwaySapuzhak0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv100%3 of 3
AwaySapuzhakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv3Sapuzhak0n = 3Maksymkiv took 3 of 3
S2Maksymkiv2Sapuzhak1n = 3Maksymkiv took 2 of 3
S3Maksymkiv0Sapuzhak3n = 3Sapuzhak took 3 of 3
S4Maksymkiv3Sapuzhak0n = 3Maksymkiv took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMaksymkivSapuzhakM − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match44.036.3+7.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivSapuzhakBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 681 vs 71 / 17552%40.6%354 / 681 vs 71 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.57/Sapuzhak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sapuzhak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 1 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv—11117113O. Sapuzhak—261111
WJul 26 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv—117712113O. Sapuzhak—611111092
WJul 19 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv—11126153O. Sapuzhak—81011131
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761
Upcoming Matches
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