TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044139
Played Aug 30Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811113117116––
Oleg Sapuzhak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Oleg Sapuzhak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 4–2 Oleg Sapuzhak Oleg Sapuzhak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:25What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Salivonchyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1256 vs Sapuzhak 1176
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 80% vs Sapuzhak 60%
Salivonchyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 70% vs Sapuzhak 50%
Salivonchyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk +2 · Sapuzhak +3
Sapuzhak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Salivonchyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 1.80 / Sapuzhak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13044139
Salivonchyk1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 92 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it73% 69 of 94
Sapuzhak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk4wins
AwaySapuzhak2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchyk66.7%2 of 3
AwaySapuzhak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk3Sapuzhak3n = 6split evenly
S2Salivonchyk3Sapuzhak3n = 6split evenly
S3Salivonchyk3Sapuzhak3n = 6split evenly
S4Salivonchyk2Sapuzhak3n = 5Sapuzhak took 3 of 5
S5Salivonchyk3Sapuzhak0n = 3Salivonchyk took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSalivonchykSapuzhakSalivonchyk − SapuzhakBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.239.0+4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykSapuzhakBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 614 vs 72 / 17653.1%40.9%326 / 614 vs 72 / 176Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykSalivonchyk 1.80/Sapuzhak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 23 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk—119911113O. Sapuzhak—51111952
WAug 16 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk—1111911173O. Sapuzhak—135119152
LAug 9 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk—118981O. Sapuzhak—91111113
WJul 19 · 17:25V. Salivonchyk—811116113O. Sapuzhak—11761162
WJul 12 · 12:55V. Salivonchyk—1111123O. Sapuzhak—63100
LMar 29 · 13:55V. Salivonchyk—7101141O. Sapuzhak—11124113
V. Salivonchyk10
WSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113WAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
Upcoming Matches
V. Salivonchyk
O. Sapuzhak
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.