TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084025
Played Sep 6Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210611811114117
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 14–12 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kheresko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1276 vs Kheresko 1175
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 100% vs Kheresko 20%
Salivonchyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 80% vs Kheresko 20%
Salivonchyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk +5 · Kheresko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Salivonchyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 2.00 / Kheresko 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13084025
Salivonchyk2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 35 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Kheresko1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 91 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 75 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk3wins
AwayKheresko7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKheresko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKheresko62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk2Kheresko8n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S2Salivonchyk5Kheresko5n = 10split evenly
S3Salivonchyk4Kheresko6n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S4Salivonchyk5Kheresko5n = 10split evenly
S5Salivonchyk2Kheresko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalivonchykKhereskoS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.241.0−3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 624 vs 202 / 40553.5%49.9%334 / 624 vs 202 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykSalivonchyk 2.00/Kheresko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk—511711113V. Kheresko—11811792
LAug 3 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk—611591V. Kheresko—11311113
LAug 2 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk—811981V. Kheresko—11911113
LJul 20 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk—11341182V. Kheresko—411119113
WJul 13 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk—761111113V. Kheresko—11118892
LJul 12 · 15:25V. Salivonchyk—55131152V. Kheresko—1111114113
LJul 6 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk—7111091V. Kheresko—11712113
LJul 5 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk—8511101V. Kheresko—11119123
WJun 29 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk—71111113V. Kheresko—119421
LJun 28 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk—116731V. Kheresko—21111113
V. Salivonchyk10
LSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102WAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552WAug 31 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk1.671111113M. Dunas2.106990
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172WSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
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