TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061120
Played Sep 2Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118811118711119
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Orest Melnik at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 9–4 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Melnik
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1246 vs Kheresko 1184
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Kheresko 20%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Kheresko 20%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Kheresko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.73 / Kheresko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Melnik)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061120
Melnik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 50 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Kheresko2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik6wins
AwayKheresko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%3 of 3
AwayKheresko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik3Kheresko7n = 10Kheresko took 7 of 10
S2Melnik5Kheresko5n = 10split evenly
S3Melnik7Kheresko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Melnik4Kheresko3n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikKhereskoM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.6+0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 377 vs 202 / 40446.7%50%176 / 377 vs 202 / 404Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.73/Kheresko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik—61070V. Kheresko—1112113
WAug 19 · 06:25O. Melnik—1211166113V. Kheresko—1013141182
WAug 18 · 18:55O. Melnik—111314113V. Kheresko—8151251
LAug 12 · 09:38O. Melnik—661141V. Kheresko—11119113
LAug 12 · 09:25O. Melnik—611981V. Kheresko—11711113
WAug 11 · 14:25O. Melnik—71111113V. Kheresko—114781
WJul 22 · 11:25O. Melnik—161111113V. Kheresko—187571
LJul 21 · 18:55O. Melnik—9540V. Kheresko—1111113
WJul 14 · 18:55O. Melnik—1113113V. Kheresko—51180
WJul 9 · 10:55O. Melnik—81113113V. Kheresko—1141141
O. Melnik10
LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3614411113O. Maksymkiv3.001211851
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172WSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113
Upcoming Matches
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V. Kheresko
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