TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055143
Played Sep 1Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111012711––––
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Orest Melnik at 57.4%
57 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 9–3 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1253 vs Kheresko 1218
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Kheresko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Kheresko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Kheresko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.67 / Kheresko 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Melnik)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13055143
Melnik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite78% won 49 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Kheresko2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 56 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayKheresko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%4 of 4
AwayKheresko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik4Kheresko6n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S2Melnik5Kheresko5n = 10split evenly
S3Melnik8Kheresko2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Melnik5Kheresko3n = 8Melnik took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikKhereskoM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.3+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 369 vs 200 / 39646.9%50.5%173 / 369 vs 200 / 396Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.67/Kheresko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 06:25O. Melnik—1211166113V. Kheresko—1013141182
WAug 18 · 18:55O. Melnik—111314113V. Kheresko—8151251
LAug 12 · 09:38O. Melnik—661141V. Kheresko—11119113
LAug 12 · 09:25O. Melnik—611981V. Kheresko—11711113
WAug 11 · 14:25O. Melnik—71111113V. Kheresko—114781
WJul 22 · 11:25O. Melnik—161111113V. Kheresko—187571
LJul 21 · 18:55O. Melnik—9540V. Kheresko—1111113
WJul 14 · 18:55O. Melnik—1113113V. Kheresko—51180
WJul 9 · 10:55O. Melnik—81113113V. Kheresko—1141141
WJul 8 · 11:25O. Melnik—12611113V. Kheresko—1011191
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3614411113O. Maksymkiv3.001211851
V. Kheresko10
LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Melnik
Nothing scheduled
V. Kheresko
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