TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060348
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511411––––
Orest Melnik
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 48 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Orest Melnik at 72.3%
48 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 1–12 Orest Melnik Oleh Maksymkiv has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-12 in 13
Melnik
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1230 vs Melnik 1232
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Melnik 20%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 70% vs Melnik 30%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +2 · Melnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 3.00 / Melnik 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Melnik)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13060348
Maksymkiv3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 61 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Melnik1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite77% won 50 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv1wins
AwayMelnik9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkivn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnik100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv1Melnik9n = 10Melnik took 9 of 10
S2Maksymkiv3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Maksymkiv4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Maksymkiv3Melnik4n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivMelnikMaksymkiv − MelnikBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.940.9−9.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 702 vs 174 / 37352.4%46.7%368 / 702 vs 174 / 373Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMaksymkiv 3.00/Melnik 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv—1211851O. Melnik—14411113
LAug 13 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv—451151O. Melnik—11117113
LJul 15 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv—10540O. Melnik—1211113
LJul 14 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv—331181O. Melnik—11119113
LJul 9 · 08:55O. Maksymkiv—912614102O. Melnik—11101112123
WJul 7 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv—11512113O. Melnik—9111071
LJul 1 · 04:55O. Maksymkiv—71181142O. Melnik—116115113
LJun 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv—8630O. Melnik—1111113
LJun 4 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv—106130O. Melnik—1211153
LMay 29 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv—1051391O. Melnik—121111113
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3614411113O. Maksymkiv3.001211851
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