TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055480
Played Sep 1Finished
Denys Kozoriz
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116811211511––
Orest Melnik
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Kozoriz above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Orest Melnik at 54.2%
65 points played in total.
H2H Denys Kozoriz 14–27 Orest Melnik Denys Kozoriz has won 14 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-27 in 41
Melnik
Correct
gap of 13 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozoriz 1336 vs Melnik 1238
Kozoriz
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozoriz 40% vs Melnik 20%
Kozoriz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozoriz 60% vs Melnik 30%
Kozoriz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozoriz +2 · Melnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozoriz 2.00 / Melnik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melnik)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13055480
Kozoriz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Melnik1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 49 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozoriz3wins
AwayMelnik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozoriz50%3 of 6
AwayMelnik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozoriz6Melnik4n = 10Kozoriz took 6 of 10
S2Kozoriz2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S3Kozoriz2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Kozoriz2Melnik6n = 8Melnik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozorizMelnikK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.439.0−7.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozorizMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 515 vs 173 / 37052.8%46.8%272 / 515 vs 173 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.335.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikKozoriz 2.00/Melnik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 06:25D. Kozoriz—71311101O. Melnik—11155123
WAug 11 · 15:25D. Kozoriz—11611113O. Melnik—511471
WApr 7 · 13:55D. Kozoriz—121160113O. Melnik—107111182
LNov 26 · 07:25D. Kozoriz—8480O. Melnik—1111113
LNov 25 · 19:55D. Kozoriz—137241O. Melnik—111111113
LNov 5 · 14:55D. Kozoriz—811861O. Melnik—11811113
LOct 30 · 12:25D. Kozoriz—113561O. Melnik—51111113
LOct 29 · 14:46D. Kozoriz—2410O. Melnik—1111113
LOct 24 · 09:25D. Kozoriz—114941O. Melnik—51111113
WOct 23 · 15:25D. Kozoriz—159812113O. Melnik—1311111012
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431LAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik1.3614411113O. Maksymkiv3.001211851
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