TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456310
Played Aug 19Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412411118115––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 77.6% is still 77.6%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
77.6%
77.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Orest Melnik at 77.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 12–1 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleh Maksymkiv has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-1 in 13
Melnik
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1262 vs Maksymkiv 1174
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Maksymkiv 20%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Maksymkiv 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -2 · Maksymkiv +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.36 / Maksymkiv 3.00
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Melnik)+8.8pp
Setka Cup · #12456310
Melnik1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite78% won 52 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Maksymkiv3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 64 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik9wins
AwayMaksymkiv1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%9 of 9
AwayMaksymkivn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik9Maksymkiv1n = 10Melnik took 9 of 10
S2Melnik7Maksymkiv3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik6Maksymkiv4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Melnik4Maksymkiv3n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikMaksymkivMelnik − MaksymkivBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.931.9+9.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 388 vs 353 / 67748.5%52.1%188 / 388 vs 353 / 677Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.36/Maksymkiv 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.6%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 11:25O. Melnik—14411113O. Maksymkiv—1211851
WAug 13 · 18:25O. Melnik—11117113O. Maksymkiv—451151
WJul 15 · 06:25O. Melnik—1211113O. Maksymkiv—10540
WJul 14 · 14:55O. Melnik—11119113O. Maksymkiv—331181
WJul 9 · 08:55O. Melnik—11101112123O. Maksymkiv—912614102
LJul 7 · 14:55O. Melnik—9111071O. Maksymkiv—11512113
WJul 1 · 04:55O. Melnik—116115113O. Maksymkiv—71181142
WJun 30 · 13:55O. Melnik—1111113O. Maksymkiv—8630
WJun 4 · 14:55O. Melnik—1211153O. Maksymkiv—106130
WMay 29 · 06:25O. Melnik—121111113O. Maksymkiv—1051391
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113LSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113
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