TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084087
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleg Sapuzhak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113116811––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Sapuzhak above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 58.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Sapuzhak 1–4 Oleh Maksymkiv Oleg Sapuzhak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sapuzhak 1157 vs Maksymkiv 1191
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sapuzhak 40% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sapuzhak 50% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sapuzhak -1 · Maksymkiv -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSapuzhak 2.00 / Maksymkiv 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084087
Sapuzhak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 8 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Maksymkiv1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 126 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSapuzhak1wins
AwayMaksymkiv4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSapuzhakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sapuzhak2Maksymkiv3n = 5Maksymkiv took 3 of 5
S2Sapuzhak2Maksymkiv3n = 5Maksymkiv took 3 of 5
S3Sapuzhak3Maksymkiv2n = 5Sapuzhak took 3 of 5
S4Sapuzhak0Maksymkiv5n = 5Maksymkiv took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSapuzhakMaksymkivS − MBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.644.0−4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSapuzhakMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 176 vs 372 / 71242.1%52.3%74 / 176 vs 372 / 712Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivSapuzhak 2.00/Maksymkiv 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 30 · 18:55O. Sapuzhak—1181081O. Maksymkiv—91112113
WAug 23 · 18:25O. Sapuzhak—1111811113O. Maksymkiv—78111362
LAug 1 · 04:25O. Sapuzhak—261111O. Maksymkiv—11117113
LJul 26 · 18:25O. Sapuzhak—611111092O. Maksymkiv—117712113
LJul 19 · 15:55O. Sapuzhak—81011131O. Maksymkiv—11126153
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761WAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.4411119992V. Ivanytskyi2.63751111113WSep 3 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.3391111672O. Maksymkiv1.20116611113WAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081LAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
Upcoming Matches
O. Sapuzhak
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O. Maksymkiv
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