TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044041
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleh Maksymkiv
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181210118––
Oleg Sapuzhak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Oleg Sapuzhak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 55.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 3–1 Oleg Sapuzhak Oleg Sapuzhak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:55What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1195 vs Sapuzhak 1177
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 80% vs Sapuzhak 60%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 70% vs Sapuzhak 50%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +3 · Sapuzhak +1
Maksymkiv
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.80 / Sapuzhak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13044041
Maksymkiv1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 117 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Sapuzhak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv3wins
AwaySapuzhak1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv100%3 of 3
AwaySapuzhakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv3Sapuzhak1n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
S2Maksymkiv2Sapuzhak2n = 4split evenly
S3Maksymkiv1Sapuzhak3n = 4Sapuzhak took 3 of 4
S4Maksymkiv4Sapuzhak0n = 4Maksymkiv took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMaksymkivSapuzhakM − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match44.240.2+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivSapuzhakBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 696 vs 74 / 17652.3%42.1%364 / 696 vs 74 / 176Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.80/Sapuzhak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv—78111362O. Sapuzhak—1111811113
WAug 1 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv—11117113O. Sapuzhak—261111
WJul 26 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv—117712113O. Sapuzhak—611111092
WJul 19 · 15:55O. Maksymkiv—11126153O. Sapuzhak—81011131
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.289880O. Maksymkiv3.501111113LSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113WSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861WSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761WAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
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