TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084330
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleg Sapuzhak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611811411––
Mykolay Treschetka
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Sapuzhak above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 63.2%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Sapuzhak 3–7 Mykolay Treschetka Oleg Sapuzhak has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Treschetka
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sapuzhak 1136 vs Treschetka 1178
Treschetka
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sapuzhak 20% vs Treschetka 60%
Treschetka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sapuzhak 50% vs Treschetka 70%
Treschetka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sapuzhak -3 · Treschetka +1
Sapuzhak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Treschetka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sapuzhak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSapuzhak 2.38 / Treschetka 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Treschetka)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084330
Sapuzhak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 8 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Treschetka1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSapuzhak3wins
AwayTreschetka7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTreschetka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSapuzhakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTreschetka75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sapuzhak2Treschetka8n = 10Treschetka took 8 of 10
S2Sapuzhak4Treschetka6n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S3Sapuzhak5Treschetka5n = 10split evenly
S4Sapuzhak2Treschetka5n = 7Treschetka took 5 of 7
S5Sapuzhak2Treschetka1n = 3Sapuzhak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSapuzhakTreschetkaS − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.039.9−6.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSapuzhakTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 178 vs 477 / 94641.6%50.4%74 / 178 vs 477 / 946Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaSapuzhak 2.38/Treschetka 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 15:55O. Sapuzhak—611611113M. Treschetka—11611772
LAug 20 · 07:25O. Sapuzhak—13420M. Treschetka—1511113
LAug 16 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak—7511101M. Treschetka—11115123
LAug 9 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak—6660M. Treschetka—1111113
LAug 1 · 10:25O. Sapuzhak—11123752M. Treschetka—9101111113
LJul 26 · 13:55O. Sapuzhak—711541M. Treschetka—11811113
LJul 19 · 18:25O. Sapuzhak—771291M. Treschetka—111110113
LJul 12 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak—671181M. Treschetka—11118113
WMar 29 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak—2131111123M. Treschetka—111584102
WApr 20 · 16:55O. Sapuzhak—1211113M. Treschetka—10670
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081WAug 30 · 17:25O. Sapuzhak2.20113117113M. Dunas1.6191141182LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761WAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
M. Treschetka10
LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103WSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520WSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.40117118162V. Ivanytskyi2.75711711183LSep 3 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.0065111182O. Maslovskyi1.73111189113WAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342
Upcoming Matches
O. Sapuzhak
Nothing scheduled
M. Treschetka
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