TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044557
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleg Sapuzhak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119311114711118
Mykhailo Dunas
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Dunas to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleg Sapuzhak above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 86 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mykhailo Dunas at 57.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Sapuzhak 0–2 Mykhailo Dunas Oleg Sapuzhak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dunas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sapuzhak 1168 vs Dunas 1131
Sapuzhak
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sapuzhak 60% vs Dunas 40%
Sapuzhak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sapuzhak 50% vs Dunas 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sapuzhak -1 · Dunas -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dunas) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dunas form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSapuzhak 2.20 / Dunas 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Dunas)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13044557
Sapuzhak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Dunas1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSapuzhak0wins
AwayDunas2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderDunas leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSapuzhakDunasS − DBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.044.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSapuzhakDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 176 vs 14 / 3641.5%38.9%73 / 176 vs 14 / 36Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.434.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DunasSapuzhak 2.20/Dunas 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Dunas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sapuzhak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 20 · 06:25O. Sapuzhak—11119982M. Dunas—781111113
LAug 19 · 15:55O. Sapuzhak—951191M. Dunas—11117113
O. Sapuzhak10
LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 11:55O. Sapuzhak2.009111181O. Maksymkiv1.7311136113LAug 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.8091112113O. Sapuzhak1.911181081LAug 30 · 15:25M. Treschetka1.57114911113O. Sapuzhak2.2551111342WAug 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.639970O. Sapuzhak1.441111113LAug 30 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk1.8081111113O. Sapuzhak1.91113761WAug 23 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.5778111362O. Sapuzhak2.251111811113
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas1.671113125113A. Nikolenko2.10711141122LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421WSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113
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