TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066962
Played Sep 3Finished
Mykhailo Dunas
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11713111214511112
Anatolii Nikolenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Dunas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Dunas above · Anatolii Nikolenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 97 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Mykhailo Dunas at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Dunas 2–1 Anatolii Nikolenko Anatolii Nikolenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dunas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dunas 1081 vs Nikolenko 982
Dunas
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dunas 40% vs Nikolenko 0%
Dunas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dunas 30% vs Nikolenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dunas -2 · Nikolenko -5
Nikolenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dunas) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nikolenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDunas 1.67 / Nikolenko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dunas)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13066962
Dunas1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 8 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Nikolenko2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 39 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDunas2wins
AwayNikolenko1wins
3 of 3 to a deciderDunas leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDunas66.7%2 of 3
AwayNikolenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dunas3Nikolenko0n = 3Dunas took 3 of 3
S2Dunas1Nikolenko2n = 3Nikolenko took 2 of 3
S3Dunas2Nikolenko1n = 3Dunas took 2 of 3
S4Dunas0Nikolenko3n = 3Nikolenko took 3 of 3
S5Dunas2Nikolenko1n = 3Dunas took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDunasNikolenkoD − NBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match49.048.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDunasNikolenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 53 vs 328 / 69435.9%47.3%19 / 53 vs 328 / 694Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DunasDunas 1.67/Nikolenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Dunas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dunas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 3 · 07:25M. Dunas—1113125113A. Nikolenko—711141122
WSep 2 · 12:25M. Dunas—198118113A. Nikolenko—171191142
LAug 19 · 17:25M. Dunas—11511652A. Nikolenko—711711113
M. Dunas10
LSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113LSep 3 · 08:55M. Dunas1.57118781O. Maslovskyi2.2591111113LSep 3 · 05:55M. Dunas3.40971541O. Maksymkiv1.30111113113LSep 3 · 04:25M. Dunas1.5011119692V. Ivanytskyi2.40041111113WSep 2 · 18:55O. Maslovskyi2.00241181M. Dunas1.7311119113WSep 2 · 17:25M. Dunas1.671112113V. Ivanytskyi2.1081070LSep 2 · 15:25Y. Melnyk1.801111113M. Dunas1.916860LSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.8351111113M. Dunas1.83119421WSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113LAug 31 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.61131129113M. Dunas2.20115111192
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko3.25121211113O. Maksymkiv1.331410141LSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2.637370V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113LSep 3 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.36111116113A. Nikolenko3.00471841LSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka1.731112123A. Nikolenko2.00910100LSep 2 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00155331O. Maslovskyi1.36131111113LSep 2 · 15:55A. Nikolenko2.6371111862V. Ivanytskyi1.44117811113LSep 2 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.80911761Y. Melnyk1.9111211113LSep 2 · 12:25A. Nikolenko1.73171191142M. Dunas2.00198118113WAug 27 · 11:25A. Nikolenko1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.005540
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