TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084334
Played Sep 6Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711111810––
Mykolay Treschetka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 8-10
Point 66 set 4, 8-10 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 54.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 74–70 Mykolay Treschetka Mykolay Treschetka has won 70 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Salivonchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-70 in 144
Salivonchyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1259 vs Treschetka 1206
Salivonchyk
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 60% vs Treschetka 80%
Treschetka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 70% vs Treschetka 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk -2 · Treschetka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Salivonchyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 1.73 / Treschetka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084334
Salivonchyk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 92 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it73% 69 of 94
Treschetka2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 92 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk7wins
AwayTreschetka3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayTreschetka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk7Treschetka3n = 10Salivonchyk took 7 of 10
S2Salivonchyk6Treschetka4n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S3Salivonchyk5Treschetka5n = 10split evenly
S4Salivonchyk5Treschetka4n = 9Salivonchyk took 5 of 9
S5Salivonchyk3Treschetka2n = 5Salivonchyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalivonchykTreschetkaS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.6+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 617 vs 478 / 94753.8%50.5%332 / 617 vs 478 / 947Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykSalivonchyk 1.73/Treschetka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk—61113133M. Treschetka—11711111
WAug 23 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk—1210711143M. Treschetka—1012117122
WAug 17 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk—81111113M. Treschetka—112781
LAug 16 · 18:55V. Salivonchyk—11115882M. Treschetka—761111113
LAug 10 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk—611651M. Treschetka—11511113
WAug 9 · 12:55V. Salivonchyk—13811113M. Treschetka—1111591
WAug 3 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk—129911113M. Treschetka—101111992
LAug 2 · 15:25V. Salivonchyk—11122752M. Treschetka—7101111113
WJul 20 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk—117117113M. Treschetka—61171162
WJul 19 · 15:25V. Salivonchyk—1111133M. Treschetka—95110
V. Salivonchyk10
LSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102WAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552WAug 31 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk1.671111113M. Dunas2.106990
M. Treschetka10
LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113WSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520WSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.40117118162V. Ivanytskyi2.75711711183LSep 3 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.0065111182O. Maslovskyi1.73111189113LAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761
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