TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13048205
Played Aug 31Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911112117116––
Mykolay Treschetka
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:18 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 56.6%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 74–70 Mykolay Treschetka Mykolay Treschetka has won 70 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Salivonchyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-70 in 144
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1267 vs Treschetka 1188
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 100% vs Treschetka 60%
Salivonchyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 80% vs Treschetka 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk +5 · Treschetka +2
Salivonchyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Salivonchyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 1.67 / Treschetka 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13048205
Salivonchyk1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 95 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it73% 71 of 97
Treschetka2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 91 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk7wins
AwayTreschetka3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayTreschetka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk7Treschetka3n = 10Salivonchyk took 7 of 10
S2Salivonchyk6Treschetka4n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S3Salivonchyk5Treschetka5n = 10split evenly
S4Salivonchyk5Treschetka4n = 9Salivonchyk took 5 of 9
S5Salivonchyk3Treschetka2n = 5Salivonchyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalivonchykTreschetkaS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.6+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 623 vs 482 / 95253.5%50.6%333 / 623 vs 482 / 952Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykSalivonchyk 1.67/Treschetka 2.10
Hit
What we said
56.6%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk—61113133M. Treschetka—11711111
WAug 23 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk—1210711143M. Treschetka—1012117122
WAug 17 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk—81111113M. Treschetka—112781
LAug 16 · 18:55V. Salivonchyk—11115882M. Treschetka—761111113
LAug 10 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk—611651M. Treschetka—11511113
WAug 9 · 12:55V. Salivonchyk—13811113M. Treschetka—1111591
WAug 3 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk—129911113M. Treschetka—101111992
LAug 2 · 15:25V. Salivonchyk—11122752M. Treschetka—7101111113
WJul 20 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk—117117113M. Treschetka—61171162
WJul 19 · 15:25V. Salivonchyk—1111133M. Treschetka—95110
V. Salivonchyk10
WSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102WAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552
M. Treschetka10
LSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103WSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113WSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520WSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142
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