TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088709
Played Sep 7Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1161012711311––
Vasil Salivonchyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:14 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 71 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 55.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 72–75 Vasil Salivonchyk Mykolay Treschetka has won 72 of their 147 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Salivonchyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-75 in 147
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 147, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1172 vs Salivonchyk 1257
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 40% vs Salivonchyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 50% vs Salivonchyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -3 · Salivonchyk -1
Treschetka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Salivonchyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 2.10 / Salivonchyk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13088709
Treschetka2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 93 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 72
Salivonchyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 93 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 70 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka4wins
AwaySalivonchyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka40%2 of 5
AwaySalivonchyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka5Salivonchyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Treschetka4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S3Treschetka5Salivonchyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Treschetka4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S5Treschetka2Salivonchyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaSalivonchykT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.1−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 951 vs 334 / 62150.4%53.8%479 / 951 vs 334 / 621Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykTreschetka 2.10/Salivonchyk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 16:55M. Treschetka—11111103V. Salivonchyk—771181
LAug 31 · 10:25M. Treschetka—112761V. Salivonchyk—91111113
WAug 30 · 14:25M. Treschetka—8101111113V. Salivonchyk—11125772
LAug 24 · 05:55M. Treschetka—11711111V. Salivonchyk—61113133
LAug 23 · 17:55M. Treschetka—1012117122V. Salivonchyk—1210711143
LAug 17 · 04:25M. Treschetka—112781V. Salivonchyk—81111113
WAug 16 · 18:55M. Treschetka—761111113V. Salivonchyk—11115882
WAug 10 · 10:25M. Treschetka—11511113V. Salivonchyk—611651
LAug 9 · 12:55M. Treschetka—1111591V. Salivonchyk—13811113
LAug 3 · 10:25M. Treschetka—101111992V. Salivonchyk—129911113
M. Treschetka10
LSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113WSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103WSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113WSep 6 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.3611911113O. Maksymkiv3.00611861LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520WSep 3 · 10:25M. Dunas2.206780M. Treschetka1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.67711119163A. Nikolenko2.10118811142LSep 3 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.40117118162V. Ivanytskyi2.75711711183
V. Salivonchyk10
LSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102WAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552
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