TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089020
Played Sep 7Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121171210117––
Vasil Salivonchyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 13–15 Vasil Salivonchyk Vsevolod Kheresko has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Salivonchyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1222 vs Salivonchyk 1257
Salivonchyk
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 80% vs Salivonchyk 40%
Kheresko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 50% vs Salivonchyk 70%
Salivonchyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +2 · Salivonchyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Salivonchyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 1.80 / Salivonchyk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13089020
Kheresko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 93 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 77 of 97
Salivonchyk1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 36 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKheresko7wins
AwaySalivonchyk3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKheresko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko71.4%5 of 7
AwaySalivonchyk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko7Salivonchyk3n = 10Kheresko took 7 of 10
S2Kheresko6Salivonchyk4n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S3Kheresko7Salivonchyk3n = 10Kheresko took 7 of 10
S4Kheresko5Salivonchyk5n = 10split evenly
S5Kheresko2Salivonchyk3n = 5Salivonchyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhereskoSalivonchykK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.638.9+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 413 vs 334 / 62150.1%53.8%207 / 413 vs 334 / 621Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykKheresko 1.80/Salivonchyk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko—101112113V. Salivonchyk—1271071
LSep 6 · 12:25V. Kheresko—101111472V. Salivonchyk—126811113
LAug 10 · 05:55V. Kheresko—11811792V. Salivonchyk—511711113
WAug 3 · 07:25V. Kheresko—11311113V. Salivonchyk—611591
WAug 2 · 12:25V. Kheresko—11911113V. Salivonchyk—811981
WJul 20 · 07:25V. Kheresko—411119113V. Salivonchyk—11341182
LJul 13 · 05:55V. Kheresko—11118892V. Salivonchyk—761111113
WJul 12 · 15:25V. Kheresko—1111114113V. Salivonchyk—55131152
WJul 6 · 07:25V. Kheresko—11712113V. Salivonchyk—7111091
WJul 5 · 13:25V. Kheresko—11119123V. Salivonchyk—8511101
V. Kheresko10
LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172
V. Salivonchyk10
WSep 7 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.308950V. Salivonchyk3.401111113WSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113LSep 6 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk1.73771181M. Treschetka2.0011111103LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk1.9111196892O. Maksymkiv1.807171111113LSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk1.6791111113M. Treschetka2.10112761WAug 31 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.53611127123O. Maslovskyi2.381181011102WAug 31 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk2.633111211113M. Vivatenko1.4411914552WAug 31 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk1.671111113M. Dunas2.106990
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