TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060439
Played Sep 2Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10129111311511––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 68.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 2–5 Denys Kozoriz Vsevolod Kheresko has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kozoriz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Kozoriz
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1175 vs Kozoriz 1328
Kozoriz
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 20% vs Kozoriz 40%
Kozoriz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 30% vs Kozoriz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko -1 · Kozoriz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kozoriz) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 3.00 / Kozoriz 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kozoriz)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060439
Kheresko3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Kozoriz1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 56 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKheresko2wins
AwayKozoriz5wins
Kozoriz leads 5–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhereskon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKozoriz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko2Kozoriz5n = 7Kozoriz took 5 of 7
S2Kheresko2Kozoriz5n = 7Kozoriz took 5 of 7
S3Kheresko4Kozoriz3n = 7Kheresko took 4 of 7
S4Kheresko2Kozoriz4n = 6Kozoriz took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKhereskoKozorizKheresko − KozorizBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match30.138.4−8.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 405 vs 276 / 52349.9%52.8%202 / 405 vs 276 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizKheresko 3.00/Kozoriz 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko—1091351D. Kozoriz—121111113
LSep 1 · 11:55V. Kheresko—116431D. Kozoriz—91111113
WAug 26 · 06:55V. Kheresko—91111113D. Kozoriz—116541
LAug 25 · 17:25V. Kheresko—671151D. Kozoriz—11119113
WAug 12 · 08:25V. Kheresko—11132113D. Kozoriz—9111181
LAug 11 · 12:25V. Kheresko—6420D. Kozoriz—1111113
LDec 18 · 19:55V. Kheresko—391171D. Kozoriz—11119113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv1.44911112113V. Kheresko2.6311871172WSep 2 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.36711612102V. Kheresko3.001191110123
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WSep 1 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.5091111113V. Kheresko2.50116431LAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072
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