TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015921
Played Aug 26Finished
Roman Mazur
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81115137111210117
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:31 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Mazur above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 105 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 55.5%
105 points played in total.
H2H Roman Mazur 17–8 Denys Kozoriz Denys Kozoriz has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:31What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozoriz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Mazur
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mazur 1292 vs Kozoriz 1330
Kozoriz
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mazur 40% vs Kozoriz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mazur 60% vs Kozoriz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mazur +2 · Kozoriz -3
Kozoriz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kozoriz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMazur 2.10 / Kozoriz 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Kozoriz)-0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13015921
Mazur2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 12 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Kozoriz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 63 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMazur4wins
AwayKozoriz6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKozoriz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMazur100%3 of 3
AwayKozoriz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mazur3Kozoriz7n = 10Kozoriz took 7 of 10
S2Mazur5Kozoriz5n = 10split evenly
S3Mazur7Kozoriz3n = 10Mazur took 7 of 10
S4Mazur2Kozoriz4n = 6Kozoriz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMazurKozorizM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.132.5+0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMazurKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 265 vs 274 / 52249.1%52.5%130 / 265 vs 274 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.834.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizMazur 2.10/Kozoriz 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mazur won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur—68100D. Kozoriz—1111123
LMay 14 · 06:25R. Mazur—7750D. Kozoriz—1111113
LMay 13 · 13:25R. Mazur—71111652D. Kozoriz—113511113
WApr 8 · 06:55R. Mazur—1111113D. Kozoriz—5250
LApr 7 · 15:55R. Mazur—6712101D. Kozoriz—111110123
LJan 22 · 12:25R. Mazur—931281D. Kozoriz—111110113
WJan 21 · 15:55R. Mazur—1111113D. Kozoriz—5260
LJan 14 · 18:55R. Mazur—811371D. Kozoriz—11911113
WDec 31 · 05:25R. Mazur—91111113D. Kozoriz—113721
WDec 30 · 13:55R. Mazur—11713133D. Kozoriz—71111111
R. Mazur10
WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 07:25A. Didyk1.83811951R. Mazur1.8311911113WAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113LAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur2.0068100D. Kozoriz1.731111123LAug 12 · 10:08R. Mazur4.332780S. Prus1.201111113LAug 12 · 08:55S. Prus1.2081211113R. Mazur4.331110861WAug 12 · 06:55V. Kheresko2.256101181R. Mazur1.5711128113WAug 12 · 05:25R. Mazur1.40411119113O. Melnik2.7511861152WMay 28 · 11:25R. Mazur1.8381111143S. Kryvoshyi1.831192121
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur2.0068100D. Kozoriz1.731111123
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