TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12406533
Played Aug 12Finished
Roman Mazur
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411118116911115
Orest Melnik
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Mazur to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Mazur above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Roman Mazur at 72.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Roman Mazur 16–5 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mazur
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Mazur
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mazur 1265 vs Melnik 1226
Mazur
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mazur 40% vs Melnik 20%
Mazur
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mazur 40% vs Melnik 20%
Mazur
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mazur +2 · Melnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Mazur)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMazur 1.40 / Melnik 2.75
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Mazur)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12406533
Mazur1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 28 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Melnik2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog31% won 36 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMazur8wins
AwayMelnik2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMazur leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMazur100%3 of 3
AwayMelnik28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mazur3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S2Mazur7Melnik3n = 10Mazur took 7 of 10
S3Mazur6Melnik4n = 10Mazur took 6 of 10
S4Mazur6Melnik0n = 6Mazur took 6 of 6
S5Mazur4Melnik1n = 5Mazur took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMazurMelnikMazur − MelnikBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.933.5+7.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMazurMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 262 vs 184 / 37849.2%48.7%129 / 262 vs 184 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MazurMazur 1.40/Melnik 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Mazur · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mazur won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 22 · 11:25R. Mazur—10101111113O. Melnik—12122472
LApr 21 · 14:55R. Mazur—81070O. Melnik—1112113
WApr 16 · 05:25R. Mazur—1111113O. Melnik—9980
WApr 15 · 14:25R. Mazur—861111113O. Melnik—11111752
WApr 8 · 04:55R. Mazur—711911113O. Melnik—11411892
WApr 7 · 16:55R. Mazur—1311113O. Melnik—11530
WApr 1 · 06:25R. Mazur—1111113O. Melnik—9570
LMar 31 · 13:55R. Mazur—91191692O. Melnik—1171114113
WSep 17 · 06:25R. Mazur—21111113O. Melnik—117571
WSep 16 · 13:55R. Mazur—411811113O. Melnik—11411192
R. Mazur10
WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072WAug 26 · 07:25A. Didyk1.83811951R. Mazur1.8311911113WAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113LAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur2.0068100D. Kozoriz1.731111123LAug 12 · 10:08R. Mazur4.332780S. Prus1.201111113LAug 12 · 08:55S. Prus1.2081211113R. Mazur4.331110861WAug 12 · 06:55V. Kheresko2.256101181R. Mazur1.5711128113WMay 28 · 11:25R. Mazur1.8381111143S. Kryvoshyi1.831192121
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440
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