TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015923
Played Aug 26Finished
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Roman Mazur
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Ponomarenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Roman Mazur below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Ponomarenko at 58.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 0–1 Roman Mazur Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1396 vs Mazur 1312
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Mazur 20%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Mazur 40%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Mazur -4
Mazur
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mazur form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.57 / Mazur 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015923
Ponomarenko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 16 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Mazur2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 15 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayMazur1wins
Mazur leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricPonomarenkoMazurP − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.033.0−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMazurBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 77 vs 132 / 26741.6%49.4%32 / 77 vs 132 / 267Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.57/Mazur 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mazur won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko—8680R. Mazur—1111113
D. Ponomarenko10
WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko1.83611111072V. Kheresko1.83118812113WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111113D. Kozoriz1.836860LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113WAug 25 · 16:55A. Didyk1.8311116852D. Ponomarenko1.83491111113WAug 25 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831431161D. Ponomarenko1.8316116113WAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko2.001111311113V. Kheresko1.7313611592WAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113LAug 9 · 17:40V. Ziakun3.5071111113D. Ponomarenko1.28113861
R. Mazur10
WAug 26 · 09:30R. Mazur1.401110511113V. Kheresko2.7541211172WAug 26 · 08:25R. Mazur2.10815712113D. Kozoriz1.671113111072WAug 26 · 07:25A. Didyk1.83811951R. Mazur1.8311911113LAug 26 · 04:55V. Kheresko2.5011118113R. Mazur1.50981141LAug 12 · 10:55R. Mazur2.0068100D. Kozoriz1.731111123LAug 12 · 10:08R. Mazur4.332780S. Prus1.201111113LAug 12 · 08:55S. Prus1.2081211113R. Mazur4.331110861WAug 12 · 06:55V. Kheresko2.256101181R. Mazur1.5711128113WAug 12 · 05:25R. Mazur1.40411119113O. Melnik2.7511861152WMay 28 · 11:25R. Mazur1.8381111143S. Kryvoshyi1.831192121
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