TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015916
Played Aug 26Finished
Dmytro Ponomarenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Ponomarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Ponomarenko above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Dmytro Ponomarenko at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Ponomarenko 1–1 Denys Kozoriz Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:33What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kozoriz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1407 vs Kozoriz 1346
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kozoriz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kozoriz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Kozoriz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.83 / Kozoriz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015916
Ponomarenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kozoriz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePonomarenko1wins
AwayKozoriz1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKozorizP − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.029.5−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 73 vs 274 / 52141.1%52.6%30 / 73 vs 274 / 521Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.534.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.83/Kozoriz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 26 · 05:25D. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kozoriz—6860
LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko—561131D. Kozoriz—11116113
D. Ponomarenko10
WAug 26 · 09:55A. Didyk2.2564100D. Ponomarenko1.571111123WAug 26 · 08:55D. Ponomarenko1.671111113A. Didyk2.104760LAug 26 · 07:55D. Ponomarenko1.83611111072V. Kheresko1.83118812113LAug 26 · 06:25D. Ponomarenko1.578680R. Mazur2.251111113LAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113WAug 25 · 16:55A. Didyk1.8311116852D. Ponomarenko1.83491111113WAug 25 · 14:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831431161D. Ponomarenko1.8316116113WAug 25 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko2.001111311113V. Kheresko1.7313611592WAug 25 · 12:55D. Kasian2.0011811562D. Ponomarenko1.73611811113LAug 9 · 17:40V. Ziakun3.5071111113D. Ponomarenko1.28113861
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 2 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv3.75113611D. Kozoriz1.2581111113WSep 2 · 09:55V. Kheresko3.001091351D. Kozoriz1.36121111113LSep 2 · 08:25A. Didyk1.91471211113D. Kozoriz1.80111110882WSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.251111113D. Kozoriz1.576370LSep 1 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.73881181A. Didyk2.0011112113WSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113WSep 1 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.5711911113S. Kryvoshyi2.25511681WAug 25 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko1.91561131D. Kozoriz1.8011116113
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